Overview on RES-E potentials

The following overview on potentials for electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in EU-15 countries is based on in-depth investigations carried out within the project Green-X. Thereby, as a starting point, their current status as well as historical development is illustrated briefly - followed by an overview on achieved & realisable future potentials as implemented within the database of the model Green-X.

Status quo & historical development of RES-E

In order to assess the amount and the value of RES-E technologies in EU 15 up to 2020 it is important to have a look at the current situation with respect to RES-E generation. The historical RES-E data is based on a comprehensive data collection (Eurostat (2003), IEA (2002) and statistical information gained at the national level). Regarding the years 2002-2004 (very little data is available at the country and technology levels) the 'forecast' is based on a model Green-X run under the assumption that the currently implemented promotion schemes also remain available in 2004.

Figure 1 compares the expected amount of electricity production from RES-E with the total electricity consumption for each EU country in absolute terms. Accordingly a 'relative' depiction is given in Figure 2, ranking countries by their share of RES-E generation on total consumption. As there can be seen, three countries, Austria, Sweden and Portugal, generate more than a third of electricity from these sources; others a much lower proportion.

The largest share of RES is still provided by 'large-scale' hydropower[1], as is evident from Figure 2. Such plants were mostly established before the post-1980's 'new' RES-E. The shares of the other 'new' RES-E technologies are depicted in more detail in Figure 3. It shows that small hydro, biomass, municipal solid waste (MSW) and wind are currently the most significant. There are a number of noteworthy observations including:

-	the large proportions of operating wind power in Denmark, Spain, and Germany;
-	the significant contribution of geothermal power in Italy;
-	the relatively high proportion of RES-E generated from biomass in the UK (including landfill gas, municipal waste and sewage gas), Finland, Sweden and Germany.

The historical development of RES-E on EU-15 level for the period 1990 to 2004 is expressed in Figure 4, with (left hand side) and without (right hand side) hydropower.

Figure 1. Electricity generation (achieved potential) from RES and gross electricity consumption in EU countries in 2004.
             Source: Own investigations; Eurostat, 2003, Green-X model run.

Figure 2. EU-15 countries ranked by the contribution of RES-E (with and without large hydro) to gross electricity consumption in 2004.
             Source: Own investigations; Eurostat, 2003, Green-X model run

Figure 3. Electricity generation (achieved potential) from various RES in EU countries in 2004.
             Source: Own investigations; Eurostat, 2003, Green-X model run

Figure 4. Electricity generation from RES in EU-15 countries from 1990 to 2004 – including (left hand side) & excluding (right hand side) hydro.
            Source: Own investigations; Eurostat, 2003, Green-X model run.

The relative share of individual RES-E options on EU-15 level is depicted in Figure 5. Currently (large-scale) hydro power is the dominant renewable generation technology ‑ around 60% comes from large and 8% from small scale. Due to the restricted potential and / or social acceptance the share, however, has, in the past, continuously been decreasing. Based on the high deployment rates in recent years wind energy substantially increased its contribution to electricity generation from RES.

Figure 5. Share of electricity generation from RES in the entire EU 15 in 2004 (technology level) ‑ including (left hand side) & excluding (right hand side) hydro.
            Source: Own investigations; Eurostat, 2003, Green-X model run.

(Achieved and future) potentials for RES-E

RES-E such as hydropower or wind energy represent energy sources characterised by a natural volatility. Therefore, in order to provide accurate forecasts of the future development of RES-E, historical data for RES-E had to be translated into electricity generation potentials – the achieved potential. In addition, future potentials were assessed taking into account the country-specific situation as well as realisation constraints.

Figure 6  provides an overview on the different RES-E options available in EU-15 countries up to 2020. Thereby, the already achieved potential (at the end of 2004) as well as the additional realisable mid-term potential (up to 2020) is indicated by RES-E option (for total EU-15 - right hand side) and by country (left hand side). As there can be seen, hydropower represents the currently dominant but also already most exploited renewable energy source within Europe. The largest future potential is found in the sector of wind energy followed by solid biomass and biogas – but promising future options also include tidal and wave or solar thermal energy.

Achieved (2004) & additional mid-term RES-E potential (up to 2020) in the EU-15 - by country (left hand side) and by RES-E category (right hand side)